Ted Stevens' 85th birthday present? RETIREMENT! Begich has untouchable lead--3,724!

by: Celtic Diva

Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 16:48:22 PM AKST

I am humbled and honored to serve Alaska in the United States Senate," Begich said. "It's been an incredible journey getting to this point, and I appreciate the support and commitment of the thousands of Alaskans who have brought us to this day. I can't wait to get to work fighting for Alaskan families.

****UPDATE 2****What happens next?

From Bethany Lesser at the Begich Campaign:

At this point, the majority of the total ballots have been counted. Mark Begich is up by 3,724 (Begich - 150,728, Stevens - 147,004), according to the Division of Elections. Approximately 2,500 overseas ballots remain outstanding, but Stevens would need more votes than that to change the outcome of the Alaska Senate Race.

As part of the standard process for the Division of Election's certification process, the State Review Board is also meeting today to conduct a hand count of 40 randomly selected precincts to confirm totals from the machine counts. These precincts represent at least 5 percent of each district's voters from the general election on Election Day. They will also hand count absentee and question ballots from 2 districts each for verification as well.

Target certification will be the week of December 1, as soon as the State Review Board has completed their review the director certifies the election.

With the margin of 3,724 votes, the likelihood of a recount has been reduced, since it would have to be paid for by the Stevens campaign. The only time there is an automatic recount is when there is a tie. If the final vote is within 0.5 percent, a recount can be requested, and the state will cover the bill. If the final vote is more than 0.5 percent (+/- 1,600), a campaign can request a recount, but would have to pay for it. A recount may be applied for within 5 days of certification, by either the defeated candidate or 10 members of the defeated candidate's party.  If a recount application is filed immediately, the Division of Elections must commence within five days of receipt of an application. A recount is done by machine in Juneau for the entire state, and would take approximately 3 - 5 days.

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John Vezina and Meg Simonian with the Begich Campaign, alongside Randy Reudrich with the Republican Party waiting for the questioned ballot count

I left the Division of Elections over an hour ago and there were just small pockets of ballots to count.  It looks like they finished as they posted the totals on the website!

Here is the just-recieved email from Campaign Manager, Leslie Riddle:

Dear Friends,

What a long, strange trip it's been.

It is almost over--there aren't enough votes out there to change the outcome.  Whew.   We are up 3724 votes.  The only thing left are straggler absentees from overseas.

THANK YOU ALL for your help, support, money, time, love, angst, legal advice, and whatever else you gave!  

What's next?  Planning for Senator-Elect Begich starts right away.  Keep checking our website for updates.  www.begich.com.

Do we still need money?  Yes.  We've had to send staff to watch the counts in Anchorage, Nome, Juneau, Fairbanks, and the Mat-Su.  We're still employing our team of lawyers to protect us in case the R's decide to ask for a recount (yes, they can ask for it--they'd have to pay if the vote count difference is greater than .5%).  You get it...we're not completely done here.  www.begich.com.

Thanks everyone!

Traa laaa laa laa laa

Leslie

CONGRATULATIONS MR. MAYOR SENATOR-ELECT!

(Hint:  If you want to congratulate him in person, you'll have to do it at the Anchorage Assembly Meeting, starting at 5:00 PM this evening.  Tonight is budget night so it's a good session to attend.)

Further discussion of vote counting below the fold...

Latest numbers from the Alaska Division of Elections ***UPDATED NUMBERS 2***

by: Celtic Diva

Fri Nov 14, 2008 at 14:34:17 PM AKST

************2nd NUMBERS UPDATE****************

BEGICH NOW AHEAD BY 1022

That was the last update of the day and I'm guessing the numbers went down a little bit because Fairbanks and Mat Su Valley finished their counting.

Exciting news in Fairbanks...Republican Representative Mike Kelley (District 7) is only ahead of Democrat Karl Kassel by one vote!  So, there will probably be at least one recount!

Remember, overseas absentee ballots can arrive up through Nov. 19th!

Per my phone calls to the Division of Elections:

Region 1: Juneau is done for the day but will be doing their final count (we hope) on Tuesday Nov. 18th.  

Region 2:  Mat Su Valley--DONE

Anchorage will be finishing their count on Tuesday Nov. 18th as well.

Region 3:  Prince William Sound--DONE

Region 4:  Aleutians, Western AK, North Slope--DONE

About 25,000 votes left to count between Anchorage and Juneau!

I need more cayenne for my nails!

************UPDATED NUMBERS*****************

BEGICH NOW AHEAD BY 1061 VOTES!!!!!

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I know there is a count going on today in Regions 1, 3 and 4. However it looks like they may be waiting to update until: folks are done with the count or all regions are in or all of us bite our fingernails AND toenails down to the quick!

Until then, here's something to keep your brain busy...and the good news is at the bottom!

Votes still left to be counted:

Region 1--Southeast and Kenai:  

Absentee & EV:  8,357
Questioned Ballots: 511

Region 2--Mat Su and Anchorage:  

Absentee and EV: 10,144
Questioned Ballots: 10,747

Region 3--Fairbanks:  

Absentee and EV: 5,006
Questioned Ballots: 2,671

Region 4--Aleutians, Western AK & North Slope:  

Absentee and EV: 2,282
Questioned Ballots: 1,312

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TOTAL ABSENTEE AND EARLY VOTE:  25,789
TOTAL QUESTIONED BALLOTS:  15241

TOTAL OF ALL BALLOTS LEFT TO COUNT:  41,030

TOTAL COUNTED VOTES: 282,996

GRAND TOTAL OF ALL VOTES (counted and uncounted):  324,026

Percentage of registered voters:  65.36%

More people have voted in this election than any other in Alaska history - by 10,434 votes!

UPDATE: Begich Campaign answers questions about ballot count!

by: Celtic Diva

Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 13:28:47 PM AKST

I just got this in my email from Bethany Lesser, Democratic Party and special assistant to the Begich Campaign.  It should answer all of the questions you've all been asking! :-D

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We are cautiously optimistic about the outcome of the Election. More than 59,000 ballots were counted yesterday, and Mark Begich is now up by 814 votes. Included in yesterday's ballots were conservative areas like the Mat-Su Valley (home of Governor Palin), South Anchorage (including the hillside and Girdwood - home of Senator Stevens), and the Kenai Peninsula . Of the districts not counted on Wednesday, Begich won all of them on Election Day (for full disclosure, these are regions that have smaller populations).

There are several things worth noting about the outstanding ballots. Generally, question (provisional) ballots lean slightly Democratic, and it appears the majority of question ballots will be included. For the most part, the absentee ballots that have not been counted were cast after Senator Stevens' felony conviction. While Republicans often assert the military votes usually go Republican, that is not necessarily the case in Alaska . Not only did Begich carry the military base during his run for Anchorage Mayor, but on Election Day, Begich won Elmendorf Air Force Base, Fort Richardson , and Fort Wainwright . The majority of voters in Alaska are independents, unaffiliated or nonpartisan. While Republicans often say that these voters will lean Republican, we have to remember, this isn't just any Election where independent voters are following past trends. It's not every election that the incumbent U.S. Senator was recently convicted in federal court. While we expect the margin could narrow as additional votes are counted, we are optimistic that Begich will end up on top.

Answers to your questions:

What's left to be counted?

Around 12 percent of the ballots remain outstanding. There are 25,789 early votes and absentee ballots remaining plus 14,932 question ballots, for a total of 40,721 uncounted ballots. This number could still increase slightly because ballots mailed on Election Day are accepted through Friday domestically and Wednesday, November 19 overseas.

What is the timing for the rest of the ballot counting?

The Wasilla regional office will count all remaining absentee at 1pm and questioned ballots at 8am on Friday.

The Nome regional office will count all remaining absentee and questioned ballots on Friday at 8am.
The Juneau regional office will count the remaining 2 districts of questioned ballots on Friday at 1pm.  Complete the absentee count on Tuesday at 9am.

The Fairbanks regional office will count questioned ballots on Friday and possibly some absentee at 11am.  If absentee are not counted or completed, another count will be scheduled for Monday or Tuesday.

The Anchorage regional office will count the remaining absentee and questioned ballots next Tuesday at 10am.

(much more below the fold!)

A day at the snail races...ballot counting at Division of Elections--Begich ahead by 814!!!!!

by: Celtic Diva

Wed Nov 12, 2008 at 21:48:32 PM AKST

Watching paint dry...that's what it's like looking on through a window as people count early and absentee ballots.  However, it's probably the most important example there is of our Alaska Democracy in action!

Each Dept. of Election worker doing the counting goes through one state house district at a time, grabbing stacks of ballots in huge, white envelopes (frequently, there are more than one...district 28 had four).  The counter completes the district than turns the tape that's running on their machine into the supervisor sitting at a tall table.  The results are checked and then two tapes are run of each district's and brought to the door...one for the Republican representative and one for the Democratic rep.  

District 19 gave Begich 185! / More questioned ballots arriving / Made her smile! / Winning candidate Chris Tuck!

The drama happens outside of the counting room among candidates and/or their representatives who have their noses pressed up against the glass like a kid at Christmas.  As the tapes are brought out, they grab it excitedly and then, with cell phone in hand, run into the other room to call their respective offices with the news.  Sometimes, new campaign workers come to relieve the others or keep them company, as Begich people kept coming in and out while John Vezina (Begich's Finance Director) stayed there like a permanent fixture).  At other times, like when District 19 Republican candidate Bob Roses saw that the absentee count had him down a further seven votes (the early vote knocked him farther down as well) it's just time to leave and he and his campaign manager walked out.

I showed up in the afternoon when they were already finished counting the 9,500 early votes and the Begich folks were bursting with optimism.  They had gone from a 3,500 to a 700 vote deficit behind Ted Stevens.  Considering there were still another 80,000 votes to go, we all couldn't help but feel good about what was happening.  Even David Shurtleff from the Berkowitz Campaign was positive, even though Ethan wasn't gaining enough votes to provide a lot of hope for a complete turnaround.

(more below the fold)

AK Democratic Party news on the Senate Race; early votes breaking for Begich! **UPDATE**

by: Celtic Diva

Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 17:27:12 PM AKST

Here's the latest from the Alaska Senate Race:

According to the Division of Elections, there are now 81,000 ballots outstanding that need to be counted. This accounts for more that a quarter of the total votes.

Also today, the Division of Elections said they'd count about 2/3 of the ballots (absentee and early) next Wednesday. Question ballots aren't likely to be counted until the end of next week or even the beginning of the following week. Based on data from the Division of Elections, Begich is leading Senator Ted Stevens in the early votes which have been counted - 59% to 37%.

This is VERY good news! 9,500 of the votes that still need to be counted are the early votes that happened BEFORE Thursday and a number of the 50,000+ absentee votes were early votes that happened AFTER Thursday.

However, there will be enough question ballots left after Wednesday's count for the race to still go either way.

Also, no one knows how the rest of the absentee votes will go.

Attached is a map from the Anchorage Daily News which details just how well Begich performed in the majority of Alaska , and why we are still so optimistic about the Senate race up here.

**UPDATE** My favorite election site, FiveThirtyEight.com, made a great post projecting Begich's take of the uncounted votes.  Here's an excellent (and emotionally uplifting" chart!!!!!

Then, FiveThirtyEight discusses what votes are left to count...

(LOTS MORE below the fold)

Stolen election in Alaska? Five reasons why that accusation is premature.

by: Celtic Diva

Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 14:06:06 PM AKST

"The real question is where were the all the Democrats?" Dittman said, noting the voter turnout was supposed to be in record proportions. Instead, only an estimated 57 percent of registered voters had a say - a far drop from the 66 percent turnout in the 2004 presidential election, according to state elections division figures.

The issue of the incorrect polls has triggered some concern both here and in other parts of the country, especially on the "interwebs" where folks have raised the specter of a "rigged election."  It's understandable that we're all having flashbacks to Alaska 2004, where the Division of Elections reported some precincts had over 100% turnout.  (Voting "early and often" is not just a tongue-in-cheek saying in Chicago!)  

However, we should all subscribe to the "Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy" mantra of "Don't Panic!"  I can think of at least four reasons why:

1) Per the Division of Elections, there are three different types of ballots that still must be counted:  1/2 of the early voting ballots (9,500), the absentee ballots (48,000) and the "questioned" ballots (16,000). ("Questioned" ballots come from registered voters who go to a different precinct and are allowed to vote the Congressional and Presidential elections or un-registered voters who go to a precinct and are allowed to register and vote in the presidential election only.  All of these votes are checked by hand to determine the voters status.)  

That's 73,500 ballots which equal about 15% of all registered voters in the state of Alaska.  That's a lot of votes yet to be counted.

2) While Ted Stevens is making the claim that absentee votes "always break conservative," we are operating in an entirely new world because of Barack Obama's campaign strategy.  As the result of an Obama and Begich Campaign "Get Out the Vote" juggernaut, it's quite possible that those absentee, early voting and questioned ballots will break Progressive (I know mine is in there)...completely turning that "conventional wisdom" on its head.  Also, the absentee ballots are often military-dominated, which has caused them to trend towards conservative in the past, polls and FEC records have shown this election cycle that both the oversees and US-stationed military have heavily favored the Democratic presidential candidates...specifically Barack Obama...over the McCain ticket when it comes to political donations.  The "conservative assumption" no longer carries any weight.

(more below the fold)