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Though many of us suffer from Palin Factor Fatigue, it is irrefutable that there is a nagging curiosity to have the question answered, ?How in the world did Sarah Palin become so popular and why do we still need to hear about her?? My book answers these questions in detail and urges us all to be vigilant. She is one of a small pool of ?rising stars in the republican party? as John McCain stated as recently as January 25, 2009 on Fox News Sunday.
As unbelievable as her meteoric rise was we cannot delude ourselves, turning our backs once again, into thinking that she and those like her are going away. This woman is joined by millions of loyalists whose perception is that she was persecuted in the media, stifled by McCain, and mocked by liberals - and now the theocratic conservatives are regrouping with a vengeance!
"Blue Oasis" began in 2005 in its Blogger format (now an archive) and became possibly the first Alaska Blog on Progressive Politics. At the 2008 Democratic National Convention, Celtic Diva's Blue Oasis was honored to represent Alaska as the state blog.
Transition--Community Blog
In September 2008, Celtic Diva's Blue Oasis moved to a Soapblox Community Blog format. Readers can become full participants by registering on the blog to comment and write "diaries." Diary titles appear on the right sidebar for folks to read and provide comments. Blog editors may choose to move some of these diaries to the front page.
While this Community was formed specifically with Alaska in mind, all "friends of Alaska" are welcome as members!
**Note about registering** Scroll down the right side until you find the link to register. Then, just follow the instructions!
**Note about comments** To comment on a story, click on the heading and then look for the "comment bar" at the bottom (it's light grey, I can't seem to change it). I believe the font color NOW permits you to see the "post comment" text.
YOUR BLOGMISTRESS
My name is Linda Kellen Biegel and I am a former 15-year Federal employee. Thirteen of those years were spent working for the US Army Corps of Engineers. I am also semi-retired from the Alaska music scene (singer, sound tech, stage manager, logistics).
When the blog was chosen to represent Alaska in the DNCC State Blogger Pool at the Denver Convention, I attended with the help of Alaska Real blogmistress, Writing Raven and my daughter Morrigan. On August 29th, one day after Barack Obama's inspiring speech at Invesco Field , my life took another turn as it did for all Alaska bloggers when Gov. Sarah Palin was chosen to be John McCain's VP running mate. Since then, I've either assisted or have been interviewed by media from the UK, Italy, Australia and Germany as well as national media outlets such as Wall Street Journal, NY Times, ABC Good Morning America's Kate Snow, National Journal, Dallas Morning News, LA Times, and NPR.
Presently, I work as a freelance writer, PR, event coordinator, community organizer, wife to computer programmer Josh and mother to 11-year-old Morrigan. Our family especially enjoys our summers in Alaska where we get to subsistence set-net fish Sockeye salmon as well as halibut fish/whalewatch in the family's homemade aluminum boat, "The Neverdone" (when it's working). We reside in Anchorage, Alaska.
Origin of "Celtic Diva"
I've used "Celtic Diva" as a screen name since the early 1990's on Web TV.
"Folks have asked about my Celtic heritage, especially in light of my name. What they don't realize is that I'm adopted. I was born Valerie Morehead of the Clan Muirhead. I was adopted at three-months-old by the Kellens. I always "knew" I was Celt even before really knew. I was drawn to all things Scottish, especially music. That's why my parents eventually told me at age 16."
"Linda is well-known in Alaska & beyond as the prominent progressive political blogger Celtic Diva of Celtic Diva?s Blue Oasis. But back in the day, the early 1990s, I knew her as Linda Kellen, a member of the local folk/rock band Sky is Blu, which amongst other things performed in at least a couple or so of the annual women?s show Celebration of Change, in which I also performed. And if you don?t already know, let me tell you: Linda is one fine damn singer."
I went on after the break-up of "Sky is Blu" to perform with various Alaska musicians and work with national folks like Bo Diddly, Coco Montoya, Debbie Davies, Taj Mahal, The Fabulous Thunderbirds, Bad Company, Creedence Clearwater, Carny Wilson, etc...
USA Women's Olympic Hockey Team Star Kerry Weiland with our friend Isabella and my daughter Morrigan at St. Baldrick's Day
(Scroll down to find posts.)
(Please register to participate in diaries and comments! We'd love for you to join our Community!)
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Our friend Dennis Zaki, who followed this case closely, has the scoop:
Despite overwhelming evidence of his guilt, former senator Ted Stevens will have his conviction of 7 felonies tossed by new US Attorney General Eric Holder Wednesday due to allegations of prosecutorial misconduct.
"After careful review, I have concluded that certain information should have been provided to the defense for use at trial," Attorney General Eric Holder said in a statement released this morning. "In light of this conclusion, and in consideration of the totality of the circumstances of this particular case, I have determined that it is in the interest of justice to dismiss the indictment and not proceed with a new trial."
If you look at the comments in the ADN, you can see that the outcry from Stevens's supporters is going to be HUGE. They are going to want Mark Begich's head on a stick. I don't think they can actually have the election overturned but I don't know if that's possible. I will call Division of Elections later this morning.
Someone wake me up from this nightmare, please...or yell out "April Fools!!!!"
Palin approached a topic that most Alaska politicians shy away from -- the need to seek employment and opportunities outside village Alaska. (For Outside readers, there are more than 200 villages in Alaska, most unconnected to roads and the power grid.)
Palin may have been criticized for not reacting swiftly enough to cries for help from villages hurting this winter from high food and fuel prices, but she clearly is thinking about the long-term future of rural Alaska.
The harsh reality is that rural Alaskans have limited opportunities, be it employment, education or even dating. In the early 21st century, rural residents are still dealing with many of the same perplexing questions as they have for decades:
How do they hold on to tradition, to hunting, to fishing? If people leave the village for new opportunities, how can the community sustain itself? What is the purpose of the village today? Why are so many people suffering from suicide and alcoholism?
Watch this video and listen closely to Palin's remarks. It seems she's thinking about these larger issues, and perhaps this might prompt a state conversation sorely needed, especially in these uncertain economic times.
Her response to the seemingly uninformed staff of the Dispatch should be shouted from the rooftops:
After stewing all night, I woke up this morning to a phone call from Celtic Diva. She and Mudflats pointed to an article in the Alaska Dispatch, praising Palin for "speaking from the heart" and being "thoughtful" about solutions for the communities.
You can only be thoughtful if you've met with the people from the communities and listened to them. Palin is calling for a change in leadership - with who? What are these leaders doing wrong? Who are they? When has she talked to them? And she gave NO solutions except to say these youth should think about leaving. So the solution is "leave the village"? She can't be a spark to "real dialogue" when she's never taken part in a dialogue! The dialogue has been going on, but Palin doesn't care to be part of it.
The article was also preemptively defensive about the race card being thrown at Palin. As if Palin needs to be a racist to make ignorant remarks about the state of rural Alaska. Personally, I believe Palin is willing to be pretty racially equal about throwing rural Alaska under the bus. For that matter, she's screwing us all equally in her painfully obvious stab for national attention. I didn't agree with the remarks about Ted Stevens at the time (don't think the guy was racist, just wrong) and it is interesting to note that the only people to bring up racism with Palin's remarks have been the people of the Alaska Dispatch.
To be very clear - Palin's remarks aren't racist. They are ignorant of the real issues, display a willingness to decide what is right having never had the dialogue, and take us back about 50 years in the struggle to maintain thriving rural and cultural communties. But in ignorance, she's being quite equal.
My own observations:
-- I was angered and amused by the Dispatch's reference to former Sen. Ted Stevens as someone who also "thoughtfully" discussed rural Alaska's future. In truth, the FBI investigation of Stevens originated as a result of the shady deals involving his son Ben with various fishery entities in Alaska and Seattle. The results of this and other Stevens-supported legislation has been the all-out acquisition of the Alaska cod and other federally-controlled fisheries by the Washington State fishing fleet, the loss of thousands of fishing jobs in Alaska, and possibly irreversible damage to the King Salmon run on the Yukon River...a run many villages depend upon for their survival.
Any "musings" of former-Senator Stevens may not be racist, but are clearly warped by his corporate ties and the undue influence of monies from big-business over his decisions.
-- I agree with Writing Raven in that Governor Palin's comments do not necessarily reflect racism but do reflect self-promotion and ambition in its purest form.
Governor Palin has shown that she is actually quite predictable...whatever most benefits her is the direction she will follow, no matter what the results or consequences. Most recently, with the dawn of "SarahPAC" and her recent trip to meet with huge donors and "bundlers" like Fred Malek, it has been clear that her quest for finances and support for a 2012 presidential run has dominated all else. This includes her Governor's "State of the State" speech, where Alaskans were looking for some glimmer of a message among the platitudes directed at her national audience.
Some of this will be tricky, however. Sarah Palin desperately needs money and must somehow court the corporations without appearing to contradict her "Mavricky" image crafted during her Vice-Presidential run. So I don't believe it's a coincidence that the position on Rural Alaska reflected in her comments has been the same position spouted by corporate-hacks-posing-as-Republicans for years.
And this ties in with a theory:
The vast majority of Alaska's resources including gold and other minerals, oil, natural gas, etc...are found on and under lands traditionally inhabited by Alaska's Native people. The Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act was a tool by which all individual Alaska Natives legally relinquished their claim on the land. It established the Village Corporations (for example, Emmonak Village Corporation...the people who live there) as owning the surface rights to the patented land while the regional corporation (for example, Calista Corporation) owns the subsurface rights. This lasts as long as the Corporations exist.
For those of you who have never lived/worked up in oil country, much of the North Slope is completely under corporate control. The only "police" are oil-company security. Whoever gets in/out is completely within the control of the oil companies.
So, what happens if the Native population of Emmonak is starved out of a village, the people move and the village no longer exists nor is it incorporated? Is it probable that the surface rights would be up for grabs or revert back to the government? Would the government also have a case to challenge Calista for the subsurface rights if there was no longer a Native population living there?
I believe that corporations would love to encourage the Alaska Native population to leave their villages in order to clear the way for unfettered development.
-- The Alaska Dispatch commentary on Palin's remarks and their further response to emails show the same ignorance of the issues that our Governor displays...an ignorance born of not even bothering to investigate or learn from the people whose lives are presently touched by the problems. Both Palin and Alaska Dispatch focus on "charity"...something which the Alaska Natives abhor more than anyone. However, both Palin and the Dispatch ignore what the communities have needed for years from the state and federal governments...not charity, but simple infrastructure like a port at the mouth of the Yukon (jobs), energy extraction projects (inexpensive energy, jobs), and a solution to the fishery problem which has severely damaged their ability to live off of the King Salmon run (jobs, income, food). Palin is clearly willing to (quietly but deliberately) continue the quest for the billion-dollar-plus Knik Arm Bridge, but wants to reject the infrastructure money coming in from the stimulus package which could revitalize Rural Alaska.
So yes, there must be many discussions on Rural Alaska and the solutions to their issues, but the discussion doesn't begin as one-sided commentary suggesting leadership change (before the leadership has been consulted) and that the youth move to the cities to find jobs...a sure death of the villages The fact that neither Palin nor the Dispatch seems to "get" that reflects badly on their understanding of the issues and, for the Dispatch, their alleged "journalistic neutrality."
********************UPDATE********************
From Pekoe's comment below (good catch!):
Todd wasn't raised in a village, was he? Palin made it sound like he was with this statement, like he was tanning hides and smoking salmon and thought, "Dang! I live in a cash-based society! I need a mainstream job!"
Culturally, the Palins live a lifestyle of small-town Alaska. Todd does not take part in Native organizations or tribal politics. He grew up in Glennallen and Wasilla. His Native roots can be seen in his dividends from the Bristol Bay Native Corporation and boyhood visits with his grandma, where he learned to tend fish nets along the Nushagak River.
(hat tip--Palingates.blogspot.com)
Via an email source, I was told that the most Palin ever "lived" in the village was a few weeks each summer fishing with his grandma.
I spent a few weeks every summer of my life until age 19 on my grandmother's/aunt's/uncle's farms in Iowa, while I spent the rest of the year in Ohio, Philadelphia or Chicago. According to "Palin-logic," I'm an Iowa farmer.
ANCHORAGE, AK - Senator Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) today released the following statement regarding his campaign and the most recent vote tallies in Alaska:
"Given the number of ballots that remain to be counted, it is apparent the election has been decided and Mayor Begich has been elected.
"My family and I wish to thank the thousands of Alaskans who stood by us and who supported my re-election. It was a tough fight that would not have been possible without the help of so many Alaskans - people who I am honored to call my friends. I will always remember their thoughts, prayers, and encouragement.
"I am proud of the campaign we ran and regret that the outcome was not what we had hoped for. I am deeply grateful to Alaskans for allowing me to serve them for 40 years in the U.S. Senate. It has been the greatest honor of my life to work with Alaskans of all political persuasions to make this state that we all love a better place.
"I wish Mayor Begich and his family well. My staff and I stand willing to help him prepare for his new position."
This means that we won't have a statewide recount but there will still be one in Fairbanks District 7 as Mike Kelley only leads Karl Kassel by 1 vote.
****UPDATE****Mayor Senator-elect Mark Begich released this statement:
I am humbled and honored to serve Alaska in the United States Senate," Begich said. "It's been an incredible journey getting to this point, and I appreciate the support and commitment of the thousands of Alaskans who have brought us to this day. I can't wait to get to work fighting for Alaskan families.
****UPDATE 2****What happens next?
From Bethany Lesser at the Begich Campaign:
At this point, the majority of the total ballots have been counted. Mark Begich is up by 3,724 (Begich - 150,728, Stevens - 147,004), according to the Division of Elections. Approximately 2,500 overseas ballots remain outstanding, but Stevens would need more votes than that to change the outcome of the Alaska Senate Race.
As part of the standard process for the Division of Election's certification process, the State Review Board is also meeting today to conduct a hand count of 40 randomly selected precincts to confirm totals from the machine counts. These precincts represent at least 5 percent of each district's voters from the general election on Election Day. They will also hand count absentee and question ballots from 2 districts each for verification as well.
Target certification will be the week of December 1, as soon as the State Review Board has completed their review the director certifies the election.
With the margin of 3,724 votes, the likelihood of a recount has been reduced, since it would have to be paid for by the Stevens campaign. The only time there is an automatic recount is when there is a tie. If the final vote is within 0.5 percent, a recount can be requested, and the state will cover the bill. If the final vote is more than 0.5 percent (+/- 1,600), a campaign can request a recount, but would have to pay for it. A recount may be applied for within 5 days of certification, by either the defeated candidate or 10 members of the defeated candidate's party. If a recount application is filed immediately, the Division of Elections must commence within five days of receipt of an application. A recount is done by machine in Juneau for the entire state, and would take approximately 3 - 5 days.
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John Vezina and Meg Simonian with the Begich Campaign, alongside Randy Reudrich with the Republican Party waiting for the questioned ballot count
I left the Division of Elections over an hour ago and there were just small pockets of ballots to count. It looks like they finished as they posted the totals on the website!
Here is the just-recieved email from Campaign Manager, Leslie Riddle:
Dear Friends,
What a long, strange trip it's been.
It is almost over--there aren't enough votes out there to change the outcome. Whew. We are up 3724 votes. The only thing left are straggler absentees from overseas.
THANK YOU ALL for your help, support, money, time, love, angst, legal advice, and whatever else you gave!
What's next? Planning for Senator-Elect Begich starts right away. Keep checking our website for updates. www.begich.com.
Do we still need money? Yes. We've had to send staff to watch the counts in Anchorage, Nome, Juneau, Fairbanks, and the Mat-Su. We're still employing our team of lawyers to protect us in case the R's decide to ask for a recount (yes, they can ask for it--they'd have to pay if the vote count difference is greater than .5%). You get it...we're not completely done here. www.begich.com.
Thanks everyone!
Traa laaa laa laa laa
Leslie
CONGRATULATIONS MR. MAYOR SENATOR-ELECT!
(Hint: If you want to congratulate him in person, you'll have to do it at the Anchorage Assembly Meeting, starting at 5:00 PM this evening. Tonight is budget night so it's a good session to attend.)
Further discussion of vote counting below the fold...
That was the last update of the day and I'm guessing the numbers went down a little bit because Fairbanks and Mat Su Valley finished their counting.
Exciting news in Fairbanks...Republican Representative Mike Kelley (District 7) is only ahead of Democrat Karl Kassel by one vote! So, there will probably be at least one recount!
Remember, overseas absentee ballots can arrive up through Nov. 19th!
Per my phone calls to the Division of Elections:
Region 1: Juneau is done for the day but will be doing their final count (we hope) on Tuesday Nov. 18th.
Region 2: Mat Su Valley--DONE
Anchorage will be finishing their count on Tuesday Nov. 18th as well.
Region 3: Prince William Sound--DONE
Region 4: Aleutians, Western AK, North Slope--DONE
About 25,000 votes left to count between Anchorage and Juneau!
I need more cayenne for my nails!
************UPDATED NUMBERS*****************
BEGICH NOW AHEAD BY 1061 VOTES!!!!!
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I know there is a count going on today in Regions 1, 3 and 4. However it looks like they may be waiting to update until: folks are done with the count or all regions are in or all of us bite our fingernails AND toenails down to the quick!
Until then, here's something to keep your brain busy...and the good news is at the bottom!
I love Rachel Maddow...I really do. However, in the case of the Alaska election she was definitely getting her information from folks who were not directly hands-on with the process. The Begich Campaign has had boots-on-the-ground since long before Election Day. They have had people all over the state the entire time. No one was more frustrated by the early conspiracy-theory panic than they were...because the folks who were spreading it weren't talking to them. It also seemed like there were folks out there with a lack-of-understanding of Alaska's unique challenges, transportation and otherwise, who turned this into something it was not. At the very least, they sounded the alarm bell rather prematurely.
There never were hidden ballots, no "lost ballots" or "found ballots." There never was a "mystery" as to where the ballots were. It was taking a long time because:
a) 1/3 of ALL ballots are either early vote, absentee or questioned...that is an unheard of number in Alaska until this year. That fact is NOT A DANGER SIGNAL EITHER! The Begich Campaign was in every village, every city pushing early and absentee voting right along with the Obama Campaign! Guess what? It worked!
b) This year, there is a new procedure where EVERY BALLOT had to be double checked to make sure no one accidentally voted twice...absentee and on Election Day. Why was that procedure established? Because 26 people during the primary voted twice and they wanted to close that loophole. Who is the one that motivated this new procedure? The Democratic Party!
c) Due to the Bush Administration's war on unions and desperate desire to privatize mail delivery under one of his corporate buddies, the amazingly efficient US Postal Service has had their budget repeatedly whacked as of late. As a result...and because of the outrageous cost of aircraft fuel in Alaska...they have had to cut back on mail deliveries to Rural Alaska. Since that's how most of their ballots travel, we've had to wait.
There were some people especially worried about the Diebold machines and the GEMS tabulator...with legitimate concerns from past Alaska elections and problems in the lower-48. However, I was absolutely stunned that (to my knowledge) NONE of these people who were worried showed up at the absentee ballot counting at Division of Elections so they could actually look at the the tapes first-hand from each district count as they were coming out of the machines. The procedure was as wide-open as they could allow without danger of exposing privacy information. Media was allowed to film everything except (understandably) the individual ballots close-up. The openness of the Department of Elections was very different from two years ago under pageant queen Whitney Brewster and then Lt. Governor Loren "The Undertaker" Leman.
The ironic and entertaining part was that Republicans were the ones baffled by the results. As we'd look at each tape, we'd see McCain/Palin win easily in the Republican-leaning districts, yet in the majority of them, Stevens would lose to Begich. Why they were suprised that folks would vote cross-party to avoid electing a felon is amazing. What it did for me was renew my faith in Alaskans.
Mayor (and hopefully soon-to-be Senator) Begich's appearance on Rachel Maddow was well timed, as we still have another nail-biting 5 days to go. While not discouraging vigilence, his reassurances have gone a long way to dispell some of the fears of shell-shocked politicos, a Palin/Stevens-weary public and my favorite Rhodes scholar television journalist.
I just got this in my email from Bethany Lesser, Democratic Party and special assistant to the Begich Campaign. It should answer all of the questions you've all been asking! :-D
------------------------------------------------
We are cautiously optimistic about the outcome of the Election. More than 59,000 ballots were counted yesterday, and Mark Begich is now up by 814 votes. Included in yesterday's ballots were conservative areas like the Mat-Su Valley (home of Governor Palin), South Anchorage (including the hillside and Girdwood - home of Senator Stevens), and the Kenai Peninsula . Of the districts not counted on Wednesday, Begich won all of them on Election Day (for full disclosure, these are regions that have smaller populations).
There are several things worth noting about the outstanding ballots. Generally, question (provisional) ballots lean slightly Democratic, and it appears the majority of question ballots will be included. For the most part, the absentee ballots that have not been counted were cast after Senator Stevens' felony conviction. While Republicans often assert the military votes usually go Republican, that is not necessarily the case in Alaska . Not only did Begich carry the military base during his run for Anchorage Mayor, but on Election Day, Begich won Elmendorf Air Force Base, Fort Richardson , and Fort Wainwright . The majority of voters in Alaska are independents, unaffiliated or nonpartisan. While Republicans often say that these voters will lean Republican, we have to remember, this isn't just any Election where independent voters are following past trends. It's not every election that the incumbent U.S. Senator was recently convicted in federal court. While we expect the margin could narrow as additional votes are counted, we are optimistic that Begich will end up on top.
Answers to your questions:
What's left to be counted?
Around 12 percent of the ballots remain outstanding. There are 25,789 early votes and absentee ballots remaining plus 14,932 question ballots, for a total of 40,721 uncounted ballots. This number could still increase slightly because ballots mailed on Election Day are accepted through Friday domestically and Wednesday, November 19 overseas.
What is the timing for the rest of the ballot counting?
The Wasilla regional office will count all remaining absentee at 1pm and questioned ballots at 8am on Friday.
The Nome regional office will count all remaining absentee and questioned ballots on Friday at 8am.
The Juneau regional office will count the remaining 2 districts of questioned ballots on Friday at 1pm. Complete the absentee count on Tuesday at 9am.
The Fairbanks regional office will count questioned ballots on Friday and possibly some absentee at 11am. If absentee are not counted or completed, another count will be scheduled for Monday or Tuesday.
The Anchorage regional office will count the remaining absentee and questioned ballots next Tuesday at 10am.
Looking through the window as DoE employees count Anchorage absentee ballots
Watching paint dry...that's what it's like looking on through a window as people count early and absentee ballots. However, it's probably the most important example there is of our Alaska Democracy in action!
Each Dept. of Election worker doing the counting goes through one state house district at a time, grabbing stacks of ballots in huge, white envelopes (frequently, there are more than one...district 28 had four). The counter completes the district than turns the tape that's running on their machine into the supervisor sitting at a tall table. The results are checked and then two tapes are run of each district's and brought to the door...one for the Republican representative and one for the Democratic rep.
District 19 gave Begich 185! / More questioned ballots arriving / Made her smile! / Winning candidate Chris Tuck!
The drama happens outside of the counting room among candidates and/or their representatives who have their noses pressed up against the glass like a kid at Christmas. As the tapes are brought out, they grab it excitedly and then, with cell phone in hand, run into the other room to call their respective offices with the news. Sometimes, new campaign workers come to relieve the others or keep them company, as Begich people kept coming in and out while John Vezina (Begich's Finance Director) stayed there like a permanent fixture). At other times, like when District 19 Republican candidate Bob Roses saw that the absentee count had him down a further seven votes (the early vote knocked him farther down as well) it's just time to leave and he and his campaign manager walked out.
I showed up in the afternoon when they were already finished counting the 9,500 early votes and the Begich folks were bursting with optimism. They had gone from a 3,500 to a 700 vote deficit behind Ted Stevens. Considering there were still another 80,000 votes to go, we all couldn't help but feel good about what was happening. Even David Shurtleff from the Berkowitz Campaign was positive, even though Ethan wasn't gaining enough votes to provide a lot of hope for a complete turnaround.
Per an email from Democratic Party Rep. Bethany Lesser:
Here's the latest from the Alaska Senate Race:
According to the Division of Elections, there are now 81,000 ballots outstanding that need to be counted. This accounts for more that a quarter of the total votes.
Also today, the Division of Elections said they'd count about 2/3 of the ballots (absentee and early) next Wednesday. Question ballots aren't likely to be counted until the end of next week or even the beginning of the following week. Based on data from the Division of Elections, Begich is leading Senator Ted Stevens in the early votes which have been counted - 59% to 37%.
This is VERY good news! 9,500 of the votes that still need to be counted are the early votes that happened BEFORE Thursday and a number of the 50,000+ absentee votes were early votes that happened AFTER Thursday.
However, there will be enough question ballots left after Wednesday's count for the race to still go either way.
Also, no one knows how the rest of the absentee votes will go.
Attached is a map from the Anchorage Daily News which details just how well Begich performed in the majority of Alaska , and why we are still so optimistic about the Senate race up here.
**UPDATE** My favorite election site, FiveThirtyEight.com, made a great post projecting Begich's take of the uncounted votes. Here's an excellent (and emotionally uplifting" chart!!!!!
Then, FiveThirtyEight discusses what votes are left to count...
Shannyn Moore did a story suggesting that there may have been some type of vote suppression occurring in this election. These were some of the responses to her article:
By: Melissa Fouse on November 6, 2008
at 2:04 pm
Shannyn - I was a poll watcher for this election, a volunteer (for the Ds) and spent 15 hours Tuesday watching for any election fraud or anomaly in House District 26 (Anchorage, west side). Turnout was low - of the 1200 registered voters in that precinct, about 550 voted. Another 66 voted questioned ballots. Every ballot was properly handled; the touch-screen machine was not even used. In the middle of the afternoon, when the results of the Presidential election were announced (I suspect, we were in a news blackout in the polling place) the trickle of voters slowed even more. Of the over 300 identified D supporters on the list I had in front of me, not even 100 voted. I know there were some 200 volunteers doing what I was doing and most likely more from the Rs.
It stinks that so few people voted, but in my small precinct, it was all on the up and up.
By: mike on November 6, 2008
at 7:02 pm
Our polling place was DEAD QUIET when we voted at 6:30 pm. There were MUCH bigger crowds in the evening for at least the last 2 elections.
I hate to say it but I think once it was clear Obama won, many Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents just didn't bother to show up. My guess is a lot of people only really cared about the Obama race, and didn't care so much about our local elections.
By: Carrie on November 6, 2008
at 11:25 pm
I did exit polls on Tuesday. There was a huge line at my precinct prior to the polls opening at 7am. After about 7:30am it was DEAD the rest of the day. This is the third presidental election I have done exit polls for, and it was very clear to me that turnout was WAY down. In fact, the officials at my site were very perplexed.
Get over your conspiracy theorys and get a life. Would someone be crying foul if the Senate and House races had gone the the other way? Doubtful. For goodness sake, even the pollsters were suprprised at the low turnout. Ask the officials who were there - the voters didn't show!!!
People called into Cary Carrigan's show this morning recounting pretty much the same experience. While it sounds like polls in Homer were busy, poll watchers, poll workers and voters in Anchorage have recounted the same story; it was busy first thing in the morning and dead the rest of the day.
This completely jives with my husband's voting experience just after 6:00 PM in Anchorage District 24 -- there were two people voting when he walked in. When he was done, it was so empty he said you could practically hear the wind whistling in the rafters.
PLEASE recount your Alaska voting experiences either here on the blog or by emailing me at celticdivaak@yahoo.com.
Many people are shocked that convicted felon Ted Stevens could possibly be ahead of Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich in the fight for his US Senate seat, or that under-investigation Congressman Don Young has probably held on to his seat against Ethan Berkowitz. This seems especially dubious as polls that were correct in every other state were seemingly way off in Alaska. An article in the Anchorage Daily News titled "The Pollsters missed the mark" discusses this:
"The real question is where were the all the Democrats?" Dittman said, noting the voter turnout was supposed to be in record proportions. Instead, only an estimated 57 percent of registered voters had a say - a far drop from the 66 percent turnout in the 2004 presidential election, according to state elections division figures.
The issue of the incorrect polls has triggered some concern both here and in other parts of the country, especially on the "interwebs" where folks have raised the specter of a "rigged election." It's understandable that we're all having flashbacks to Alaska 2004, where the Division of Elections reported some precincts had over 100% turnout. (Voting "early and often" is not just a tongue-in-cheek saying in Chicago!)
However, we should all subscribe to the "Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy" mantra of "Don't Panic!" I can think of at least four reasons why:
1) Per the Division of Elections, there are three different types of ballots that still must be counted: 1/2 of the early voting ballots (9,500), the absentee ballots (48,000) and the "questioned" ballots (16,000). ("Questioned" ballots come from registered voters who go to a different precinct and are allowed to vote the Congressional and Presidential elections or un-registered voters who go to a precinct and are allowed to register and vote in the presidential election only. All of these votes are checked by hand to determine the voters status.)
That's 73,500 ballots which equal about 15% of all registered voters in the state of Alaska. That's a lot of votes yet to be counted.
2) While Ted Stevens is making the claim that absentee votes "always break conservative," we are operating in an entirely new world because of Barack Obama's campaign strategy. As the result of an Obama and Begich Campaign "Get Out the Vote" juggernaut, it's quite possible that those absentee, early voting and questioned ballots will break Progressive (I know mine is in there)...completely turning that "conventional wisdom" on its head. Also, the absentee ballots are often military-dominated, which has caused them to trend towards conservative in the past, polls and FEC records have shown this election cycle that both the oversees and US-stationed military have heavily favored the Democratic presidential candidates...specifically Barack Obama...over the McCain ticket when it comes to political donations. The "conservative assumption" no longer carries any weight.
Last precincts in - Mark won them, new numbers are: Begich 103,337 (47%) to Stevens 106,594 (48%) 100% in. Estimate is 60 - 75 thousand yet to count. We are told 15% are from Juneau which I am trying to confirm. We won 64% of the vote in Juneau.
...the Division (of Elections) is doing things differently this year when it comes to counting absentee ballots.
Normally, some fraction of absentee ballots would be included in the election night numbers...
... the roughly 40,000 absentee ballots cast so far won't be included in the official count until later. That's to double check the ballots and make sure no one is double-dipping.
About 23,000 people have voted early, according to the Division. Of those ballots, about 14,000 will appear in tonight's numbers. (Generally, if you're an early voter who cast a ballot before Thursday, you're vote will likely be included tonight.)
Add thousands of questioned ballots to the uncertainty, and any close races will be very much in the air tonight.
As of right now, Ted is only ahead by 3,352 and Don Young is ahead by about 14,000.
Considering how hard the Obama and Begich Campaigns were working to promote early voting, not even 14,000 is enough of a lead to declare victory before 50,000 votes are counted.
Anyone remember a couple of weeks ago when Sarah Palin, in the face of the black-and-white text of the Troopergate Report stating she had abused her power and violated an Alaska Statute, declared she had been "vindicated?" Per the Anchorage Daily News editorial:
Palin asserted that the report found "there was no abuse of authority at all in trying to get Officer Wooten fired."
In fact, the report concluded that "impermissible pressure was placed on several subordinates in order to advance a personal agenda, to wit: to get Trooper Michael Wooten fired."
Palin's response is the kind of political "big lie" that George Orwell warned against. War is peace. Black is white. Up is down.
Now it seems that, in spite of the fact that a jury of 12 good citizens found our Senator Stevens guilty of seven felonies, Ted says "I have not been convicted of anything."
What?
You know, I'd start swearing that they were seriously putting something in that Valley water to turn folks like Vic Kohring, Sarah Palin and Ted Stevens into complete "whack-jobs," but Ted isn't from the Valley and has spent the majority of the last 40 years in DC.
I guess it's too much power for too long that forms that sense of entitlement, or perhaps a hefty personality disorder (can you say narcissist?), or a combination of both.
MODERATOR MICHAEL CAREY: Though this will be a traditional debate most of the evening, there are some questions that only you can answer. After your conviction Monday on seven felony counts, you said that you would talk to Alaskans about your future and the future of Alaska.
Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin have asked you to step down in the meantime while you pursue your appeal.
If Gov. Palin and Sen. McCain were in this room, what would you say to them?
STEVENS: Well the first thing I would tell them is that the case is still pending on the basis of mentions which we filed for a new trial or for a dismissal of the case for prosecutorial misconduct.
I have not been convicted of anything.
I would tell them that I understand that they make statements during the heat of the campaign. And, and probably they've been a little misinformed by their staff. But I wouldn't hold it against them. I understand what they're doing. They're trying to get elected.
I would have to say John, and, and Sarah, I understand.
MODERATOR LARRY PERSILY: Sen. Stevens, you are asking Alaskans to reelect you while you fight to overturn the jury's verdict. Meanwhile, your own party's leader in the senate ... has called on you to resign. As effective as you've been for Alaska over your carreer, what can you do to ensure that effectiveness will continue if re-elected?
STEVENS: Well, I think you ought to just look at what's been done since this trial has been going on, as a matter of fact. We passed a series of bills that I had introduced and had to go back to the senate while this trial was going on. I'll think I'll be effective. Effectiveness is a matter of experience. As far as the leader's comments, he too is up for election.
They just wanted to get away from questions from the press about the situation. So they made the comment about well, maybe he should step down.
I'm not going to step down. I have not been convicted. I have a got a case pending against me, and probably the worst case of prosecutorial -- misconduct by the prosecutors -- that is known. I had a talk this afternoon, with one of the attorneys here, a former U.S. attorney, who told me he was appalled by what went on in that case.
So I think you'll find out. I will succeed and I will be found innocent.
We don't deserve this...we don't need these people and when they start believing that we do(and pay big commercial money to try and convince us that we do) it's time to send them into retirement.
Once the Stevens "guilty" verdict hit, polling outfits were working like mad to find out how Alaskans were going to react and to get the information out first.
Republican Senator Ted Stevens has fallen eight points behind Democrat Mark Begich in his bid for re-election, and most Alaska voters now believe Stevens should resign from office.
The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Alaska voters, conducted a day after Stevens was found guilty of filing false financial disclosure forms, finds that 52% plan to vote for Begich while 44% support Stevens. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Bob Bird picks up three percent (3%) of the vote while two percent (2%) remain undecided.
While of course it's not over till the polls are closed, this has to have SOME people at the Begich Campaign breathing at least a LITTLE easier.
Speaking of the Begich Campaign, I talked to them last night. It seems that Sen. Ted "7-times-a-felon" Stevens scheduled his big "welcome home" celebration for the EXACT SAME TIME that Begich already had a rally scheduled.
Gee...must be a coincidence...*cough*...*choke*...*gasp*
Today, folks are sending out truckloads of emails to let people know about Mark's rally and I figured I'd give them a hand by posting.
Now, I know the temptation is there to go to the "party" for Stevens at the airport to protest, but realize the media will be at both of these events...and will be comparing crowd size.
We REALLY want folks to see that Begich is the man we need to send to the Senate and we need to convince people that a "mercy...errrr...vote" for Stevens is a waste of time (as no one in the Senate wants him there or will work with him), it's a vote for a criminal, it's an embarassment to the entire state AND it's also a way for Sarah Palin to get one-step closer to the Presidency in 2012.
Here's a good description of the rally from Mike Coumbe of the Democratic Party:
Ted Stevens is coming back to Alaska TONIGHT (Wednesday) and will arrive at the Ted Stevens Airport with Senator Lisa Murkowski for a big rally. He is calling all of his supporters to meet him there to show support for keeping him in office. Despite his conviction on seven felony counts, he believes he can still win.
Coincidentally, the Begich campaign had already planned a big rally tonight at the same time for Mark. We need to have a big, big, BIG crowd. The press will be there and they will definitely be comparing crowd size so your body is needed!
Bring friends and family and children! We'll make it fun and we'll make it big.
You can call the Begich Campaign Headquarters at 272-6275 with any questions.
This election is not a foregone conclusion -- even with Stevens' felony convictions. We are very hopeful, but the only way to secure victory is to work our tails off these next six days.
Please come to the Rally Smack Down and let's rock and roll to election day. We need your help--Come show your support for Mark!
I'll be there with Morrigan so I hope to see you all there!
WASHINGTON - Sen. Ted Stevens was convicted of corruption charges Monday in a trial that threatened to end the 40-year career of Alaska's political patriarch.
Stevens, 84, was found guilty of all seven felony charges he faced of lying about free home renovations and other gifts he received from a wealthy oil contractor. Jurors began deliberating last week.
Visibly shaken after the verdicts were read, Stevens tried to intertwine his fingers but quickly put his hands down to his side after noticing they were trembling. As he left the courtroom, Stevens got a quick kiss on the cheek from his wife, Catherine, who testified on his behalf during the trial. He declined to talk to reporters waiting outside.
"This past year has been a difficult time for Alaskans, but our people are strong and resilient and I believe that we will be able to move forward together to address the critical challenges that face Alaska."
I talked about my experiences last week when I had ABC News Good Morning America in my living room for their Alaska segment of "50 States in 50 Days" which they are doing in concert with USA Today.
While I was a little concerned since they were rather vague regarding why they chose me, I figured this was a "culture" piece (not a lot of detail-just an "overview" of Alaska politics) so I didn't see a reason that it would be a hatchet job. I had my friend Ron with me and he watched the whole thing. He thought it went very well so I was somewhat less nervous about how it would turn out.
First off, they based their article on comments from alleged "independent" attorney Laura Bowen. Yet, when I did a simple search on her name, I found that she signed a "Draft Palin for VP" online petition months before she was chosen. I have strong suspicions that this woman works/volunteers for the McCain Palin Campaign, which would tarnish that "independent" title, wouldn't it?
And that would even be alright, if they spoke to an anti-Palin person to offset that...they didn't.
Anyway, below is the comment I left on the story:
Wow, this was just a bit inaccurate.
First off "independent Laura Bowen" signed a petition to "draft Sarah Palin for VP" LONG before she was picked by McCain. http://www.ipetitions.com/peti...
Maybe not QUITE so independent, huh?
I find it facinating that the Rovian Republican technique of accusing the other guy of what they were doing all along worked with the USA Today reporters.
You do realize that the McCain Campaign SENT IN PEOPLE FROM OUTSIDE ALASKA to interfere with our state government, correct?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/pal...
You do realize that Alaska State Workers were "instructed" to send any phone calls even breathing Palin's name, not to the state Communications person, but directly to the McCain Campain in Virginia, right?
You understand that the McCain Campaign's "Truth Squad" were the ones smearing people like Walt Monegan, Sen. Hollis French, Investigator Steven Branchflower and a myriad of other folks who "dared" to investigate the Governor and then find that she "abused her power," right?
http://www.ktuu.com/global/sto... http://www.divasblueoasis.com/...
You do understand that the only people who were able to stand up to this were folks like Republican Senate President Lyda Green, who is retiring, Representative Les Gara and Senator Bill Wielekowski, who have each received numerous abusive and threatening emails and phone calls, correct?
You do understand that the primary reason the Troopergate Report was released was due to a grassroots effort of Alaskans to try and offset the huge amount of pressure put on the Alaskan Legislative Council by the McCain Campaign to keep the report under wraps, right? http://alaskansfortruth.blogsp... http://mudflats.wordpress.com/...
I guess that "independent" Palin-bot Laura Bowen sure fooled you!
I encourage folks to read it and go leave their own comments.
I can only hope that my piece on "Good Morning America" tomorrow doesn't make me want to scream.
Here are the two men who seem to have done the most to further her career. Will she throw one of them under the bus when he could use her or will Sarah and her new best friend John McCain endorse Ted Stevens?
